DTN Midday Livestock Comments          03/09 11:53

   Volatility Hits Cattle Complex Monday 

   The livestock complex is moving lower into Monday's noon hour as traders are 
skeptical of the market's trajectory. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is off to rough start for the week as all three of the 
markets are trading lower into Monday's noon hour. New showlists appear to be 
mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. May corn is 
down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.80. The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is down 345.14 points and NASDAQ is up 15.64 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   It's almost as if the cattle complex thinks cattlemen and traders alike 
would grow weary if the market simply traded in a lackadaisical mundane fashion 
as opposed to the rollercoaster ride it turns into at times. Which perfectly 
describes the market's $3.00 to $4.00 decline Monday morning as news broke late 
last week that union workers will indeed strike at the JBS packing plant in 
Greeley, Colorado. The strike is expected to happen the week of March 16, and 
JBS intends to shift production to other facilities during that time. This 
causes great anxiousness for the cattle complex as the market is already seeing 
minimal throughput from packers as they try to manage their margins to the best 
of their ability. It also raises the question: How is this going to affect beef 
consumers? Unfortunately, a level of uneasiness will likely reside within the 
market until this ordeal is played out; expect continued volatility until then. 
April live cattle are down $4.40 at $230.15, June live cattle are down $4.37 at 
$227.10 and August live cattle are down $3.80 at $225.45. New showlists appear 
to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado.

   Last week Southern live cattle traded at $240, which is $4.00 lower than the 
previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $380, 
which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.44 ($390.66) and select up $2.28 
($381.23) with a movement of 21 loads (11.41 loads of choice, 2.75 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 7.13 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   As expected, the feeder cattle complex has noted the decline in the live 
cattle market and consequently elected to send its contracts tumbling $4.00 to 
$5.00 lower into Monday's noon hour. March feeders are down $4.30 at $351.32, 
April feeders are down $5.22 at $346.45 and May feeders are down $5.80 at 
$342.27. Until the live cattle complex settles down and trade in a more stable 
manner, the feeder cattle contracts will likely continue to scale lower. 

LEAN HOGS:

   Not even the lean hog complex can trade higher Monday morning as its market 
is also seeing a slight regression into the noon hour. April lean hogs are down 
$0.67 at $94.95, June lean hogs are down $1.42 at $99.42 and July lean hogs are 
down $1.07 at $111.62. For the lean hog complex the market's resistance seems 
to be inflicting pressure more than anything else.

   The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/6/2026 is up $0.13 at $90.87, and the 
actual index for 3/5/2026 is up $0.19 at $90.74. Hog prices are unavailable on 
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can 
see that 2,190 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now 
sits at $91.56. Pork cutouts total 135.42 loads with 114.95 loads of pork cuts 
and 20.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.80, $102.07.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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